Fearless Forecast - UW Badgers Football

Camp Randall. 9/2/23 dwm
 Wisconsin Badger football had high expectations which were not met by the 2023 edition that finished with 7 wins, 6 losses.

 Today's college football is a different animal (as are all college sports since Name, Image, and Likeness plus the transfer portal were introduced) these days. 

 Second year had coach Luke Fickell changed a few coaches on his staff and brought in players through the portal to replace or increase competition to get on the field.

 Most pundits say this team will be better but the record might not show much improvement as their 2024 schedule is more difficult.

 There's a non-conference game with SEC power Alabama (expected to be good, even without coach Nick Saban) and new conference foes, as the University of Southern California and University of Oregon join the B1G conference (UCLA and the University of Washington also joined, they aren't on the Badger schedule this year).

The first measure of success for college football teams is qualifying for a bowl game which requires 6 wins. There are some exceptions to that rule, but let's leave it at that. The B1G conference did away with two divisions this season so 18 teams will compete for the two spots in the conference championship game December 7.

I'm optimistic the Badgers will play better this season, but I don't see them playing in Indianapolis for the title.

I'm not putting money on this and you shouldn't either, here is my Fearless Forecast for 2024: (Home games are BOLD, times and TV network included if I have the information at this writing.)

Western Michigan (Friday, 8/30 8pm FS1) 

The Broncos play in the Midwest Athletic Conference (MAC). Teams from the MAC play hard and have enough talent to pull an upset over a Power-5 school. After a disappointing first season, Coach Fickell has his eyes on better results, if that doesn't start in the first game it could be a long season.   
Badgers win 1- 0

South Dakota (Saturday, 9/7 2:30pm FS1)

The Coyotes will bring everything they have to Camp Randall, but as a team in the Football Championship series, they shouldn't be able to hang with Wisconsin. 
Badgers win 2-0

Alabama (Saturday, 9/14 11am, FOX)

If the first two games are closer than expected, it could be because Wisconsin players are waiting to have one of the best college football programs come to town. The Crimson Tide will be favored. They have higher-ranked players on their side of the ball. A win by Bucky will change the complexion of the season, a close-loss will be seen as a positive development; I'm rooting for the first and hoping for the second.
Alabama wins, Badgers 2-1

Bye Week September 21

@ Southern California (September 28)

USC is one of the teams I expected to see play in the Rose Bowl every season growing up. They haven't been as well lately but they are a big-name opponent. The only way these two teams could have played in the past was in a Rose Bowl, now they play in the same conference. The Trojans play their home games in the L.A. Coliseum which hosted the 1932 and 1984 Olympics (and will again in 2028). It's difficult to imagine Wisconsin beating USC, although some experts think the Badger offense can get the better of USC. If they do, that portends bigger things ahead.
USC wins, Badgers 2-2  (conference 0-1)

Purdue (Saturday, 10/5) 

Wisconsin comes into this game with 17-straight wins over the Boilermakers. At some point the tide will turn, but hopefully this isn't when it does. Purdue's defense is its weakness.Wisconsin needs to win these three games.
Wisconsin wins 3-2 (conference 1-1)

@ Rutgers (Saturday, 10/12)

The Scarlet Knights are a good B1G football team that will be tough to beat. If the Badgers are going to have a good season, they need to win tough games on the road like this one. I'm picking Bucky.
Badgers win 4-2 (conference 2-1)

@ Northwestern (Saturday 10/19) 

The Wildcats are working on their home stadium, moving this game to a soccer field transformed to seat 12,000. Northwestern's defeat of Wisconsin last season was one of it's most disappointing losses, I expect the Badgers to get revenge.
Badgers win 5-2 (conference 3-1)

Penn State (Saturday 10/28 Homecoming)

The Nittany Lions are one of the conference's best teams, on the same level as Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington. For Wisconsin to win, they'll need to win in all three-phases of the game: offense, defense, and special teams. If this becomes a night game and the Badgers are playing at a high-level, they are my pick.
Wisconsin wins 6-2 (conference 4-1)

@ Iowa (Saturday, 11/2)

This game will say a lot about where Wisconsin is compared to their 2023 selves. The Hawkeyes beat the Badgers in Camp Randall last year, this is a potential statement game, a win indicating this team can compete and will going forward.
Wisconsin wins 7-2 (conference 5-1)

Bye week November 9

Oregon (Saturday 11/16)  

Some people think Oregon will be one of the best teams in the country this season. Wisconsin isn't on that list right now. I want to see Bucky play like I expect against the likes of Alabama and Penn State. If they do, it will be an entertaining game.
Ducks win Wisconsin 7-3 (conference 5-3)

 Camp Randall 9/2/2023 dwm
@  Nebraska (Saturday, 11/23)

The Cornhuskers are in their second season under Matt Ruhle, who has turned around college teams in the past, it's a tough spot at the end of a long-season. The Badgers haven't lost to Big Red since 2012, that streak could end in Lincoln. I hope I'm wrong.
Huskers win Wisconsin 7-4 (conference 5-4)

Minnesota (Friday 11/29 11am CBS)

You'll find B1G football on different TV networks this season (CBS and NBC replace ABC/ESPN) and one move was putting the longest conference rivalry game on Black Friday. The Badgers reclaimed Paul Bunyan's Axe in 2023 and took the lead in the series, 63-62-8. There are going to be a lot of B1G teams going to bowl games, Wisconsin will need some style points to improve their invitation. Badger fans don't want to see the Golden Gophers win a second straight game on Bucky's turf.
Wisconsin wins 8-4 (conference 6-4)
 
There are two ways this will likely go - my guesses are probably the best case scenario (short of an undefeated season) - like this: 
  • If Wisconsin beats Nebraska and USC they reach 10 wins, 8 in the conference and likely ranked in the top 25 with a shot at the new 12-team college playoff.  
  • If Rutgers and Iowa defeat the Badgers, it will be another disappointment with the team possibly missing a bowl bid with a 6-4 record overall and 4-4 in the conference.
The season starts tomorrow night, I'm cheering for the Badgers, Go Bucky!

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