3/4 Pole - Green Bay Packers

12 games in the books and four to play.

6 - 6 isn't the record any fan or sportswriter predicted before the season.

However, given where the Packers were three weeks ago an even record feels a little like a lifeboat.

My fearless forecast expected 10 - 2 by this point, a four game reversal in the win column.

While Detroit is having a great season, they are only two games ahead and the Packers hold a victory over them, effectively narrowing the margin to one game.

Green Bay hosts Seattle today in what shapes up as a real difficult assignment for the Pack.  If they find their way to a win, that's 7 - 6.  A loss, obviously reverses the record to 6 - 7.

From there, they play at Chicago.  It's a win they have to get if they plan on playing into January's second weekend.  The victory improves them to 8 - 6 or 7-7.

Home on Christmas Eve to entertain Minnesota.  They lost in the Vikings home-opener and need to return the favor.  9 - 6 or 8 -7.

Finally, there's the season finale in Detroit.  For the Packers to have a shot at winning the division, the Lions need to lose at least one game, most likely to either the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys.  I think there's a good chance one of those teams win.

If that's the scenario on January 1st, a Packer win captures the division at 10 - 6.  If the Packers fall to Seattle, and Detroit loses only once, Green Bay will be home for the playoffs.

The road map to the NFL tournament is simple and there's only way for Green Bay to make it.  We'll learn later today if they have to make it the relatively simple way or get some help to make it the hard way.

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